The Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election on U.S. Foreign Policy

USAinfo June 02, 2025

 



Trump's Return: How the 2024 Election is Reshaping America’s Global Role

The 2024 U.S. presidential election didn’t just decide the next occupant of the White House—it set the stage for a dramatic shift in how America engages with the world. With Donald Trump’s return to power, foreign governments, allies, and adversaries alike are bracing for a foreign policy revolution.

Gone is Biden’s emphasis on multilateralism and diplomatic alliances; in its place, a revived "America First" doctrine that prioritizes hard-nosed deal-making, economic nationalism, and an "us versus them" approach to global affairs.

What does this mean for U.S.-China tensions, NATO’s future, Middle East stability, and global trade? Here’s a deep dive into the key changes already unfolding—and what the world can expect next.

1. U.S.-China Relations: A New Cold War?

Trump’s first term was defined by a trade war with China, and his second promises even tougher tactics.

What’s Changing?

  • Higher tariffs – New levies on Chinese imports, potentially exceeding 60% on key goods.

  • Tech decoupling – Stricter bans on semiconductor exports, AI collaboration, and critical tech transfers.

  • Taiwan tensions – While Trump has been ambiguous on defending Taiwan, his administration may push for arms deals and stronger deterrence against Beijing.

The Fallout:

China is already retaliating with trade restrictions of its own, while accelerating efforts to ditch the dollar in global trade. A full-scale economic cold war seems inevitable—one that could reshape supply chains for decades.

2. NATO & Europe: Will America Stand By Its Allies?

Trump has long criticized NATO members for not paying their fair share, and his return has European leaders nervous.

What’s Coming?

  • Pressure on defense spending – Expect blunt demands for Europe to boost military budgets or risk reduced U.S. support.

  • Ukraine aid in question – While Congress approved $61 billion in aid, Trump has suggested negotiating a deal with Putin, possibly leaving Kyiv in a weaker position.

  • Trade fights with the EU – Trump may revive steel and aluminum tariffs, straining transatlantic economic ties.

Europe’s Response:

Germany and France are already discussing a "European defense union"—a sign that the continent is preparing for a future where U.S. security guarantees are no longer guaranteed.

3. Middle East: Hardline on Iran, Full Support for Israel

Trump’s Middle East policy will likely mirror his first term: pro-Israel, anti-Iran, and skeptical of Arab alliances.

Key Moves:

  • Crushing Iran’s nuclear ambitions – Trump may scrap the 2015 nuclear deal again and impose harsher sanctions.

  • Expanding the Abraham Accords – More Arab-Israeli normalization deals, possibly including Saudi Arabia.

  • Reduced focus on human rights – Unlike Biden, Trump is unlikely to pressure Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Turkey on democratic reforms.

Risks:

A tougher stance on Iran could spark proxy conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, while Israel’s war in Gaza may escalate further without U.S. restraint.

4. Russia: Will Trump Seek a Deal with Putin?

Trump has long expressed admiration for Putin, and his return could mean:

  • Pushing Ukraine toward peace talks – Even if it means ceding territory.

  • Lifting some sanctions – In exchange for vague promises on cyberattacks and election interference.

  • Reduced aid to Eastern Europe – Poland and the Baltics may need to fortify their own defenses.

Danger Ahead:

If Trump abandons Ukraine, it would embolden Russia—and signal to China that aggression pays off.

5. Global Trade: America First, Everyone Else Second

Trump’s economic nationalism means more tariffs, fewer free trade deals, and a focus on domestic manufacturing.

What’s at Stake?

  • Renegotiating NAFTA 2.0 – Trump wants even stricter rules on auto production and labor.

  • New trade wars – Europe, India, and Southeast Asia could face steel/aluminum tariffs.

  • Weakening the WTO – Trump may ignore global trade rules, leading to more unilateral sanctions.

The Bottom Line:

Businesses must prepare for more disruptions, higher costs, and a fractured global economy.

How the World is Reacting

  • Allies (Japan, Germany, UK): Quietly nervous, hedging bets by strengthening regional partnerships.

  • Adversaries (China, Russia, Iran): Testing limits, seeing an opportunity to reshape global order.

  • Global Markets: Bracing for volatility, especially in tech, energy, and defense sectors.

The Big Question: Is This the End of U.S. Global Leadership?

Trump’s return signals a retreat from America’s post-WWII role as the guarantor of global security and free trade. Instead, his transactional, zero-sum approach could lead to:

  • Short-term wins (better trade terms, less foreign entanglements)

  • Long-term risks (weaker alliances, emboldened dictators, economic instability)

One thing is certain: The world won’t wait for America to decide its path. China, Russia, and even Europe are already adapting to a post-U.S.-led order.

  What Comes Next?

The next four years will test whether "America First" strengthens U.S. power—or accelerates its decline in a multipolar world. 

Post a Comment

0 Comments